How to cut our dependence on fossil fuels rapidly
Background
Ireland is one Europe’s most fossil fuel dependent countries, a dependence that is making us less healthy, more vulnerable, and less prosperous. It is driving dangerous climate change that threatens us all. To make our energy sustainable and to reduce emissions, focussing on the most impactful solutions is more urgent than ever. The latest data and projections of greenhouse gases make it clear that Ireland is on course to breach legally binding national and international obligations unless we make a significant course correction.
But with the myriad options available to move us away from fossil fuels, which will deliver the greatest impact, and which are likely to remain targeted niche solutions?
Just five key measures could deliver 90% of the greenhouse gas emission savings required for energy by 2030, according to Ireland’s Climate Action Plan. These “Big 5” measures are essential, no-regrets strategies. And the good news is that they are already available and well-tested, and can make our energy cleaner, more secure and more affordable.
So, what are the “Big 5”?
The Big 5
- Wind, solar and grid
Renewable electricity is the backbone of Ireland’s sustainable energy transition by systematically replacing fossil fuels with power generated from wind and solar. Around 40% of our electricity now comes from renewables, a huge success, with an ambitious target to achieve 80% by 2030. Reaching this milestone will require investment in our power grid in the form of new power lines, and creating a more flexible system to manage fluctuating renewables with different kinds of energy storage. Speeding up the roll-out of solar farms and onshore and offshore wind projects is critical, by resourcing the planning system and accelerating grid connections.
- Electrify transport
Transport is Ireland’s largest energy user and the greatest source of energy-related emissions. Fossil fuel car sales are currently rising faster than those of EVs, meaning petrol and diesel use is simply not falling. Ending our lock-in to fossil fuels will only be achieved if we limit, and ultimately end, fossil fuelled vehicles sales and ensure that all new car purchases are electric. Policy options include regulating the marketing of fossil fuelled cars and increasing taxes on new internal combustion engine car sales, and zero-emission zones in our cities. In parallel, to make EVs more attractive and accessible we must roll out rapid and neighbourhood public charging, and incentivise used EV imports to bolster the second-hand market. EVs already make financial sense when running costs are considered and ultimately, they could play an important role in supporting the integration of renewable electricity. This would be achieved by storing energy for a house if vehicle-to-grid and bi-directional charging technology is incentivised.
- Reduce unnecessary car use
In parallel, dramatically improving alternatives to car use is key to meeting our emissions targets, and to making our transport system more accessible, safer, equitable and healthy. Reimagining our shared spaces in towns and cities and allocating it to more sustainable forms of transport will make communities where car ownership is not forced. Giving people an attractive alternative to cars requires prioritising investment in public transport, and making it accessible, affordable, and reliable, and making cycling a mainstream option. Ensuring new housing is built around sustainable transport will avoid us being continually locked into car dependency and congestion. For the younger members of our society, sustainable school transport options, such as school buses and safe routes to schools, will bring many benefits.
- Retrofit, heat pumps and district heat
The inefficiency and fossil fuel dependence of a large portion of our building stock are key contributors to energy poverty, poor health and comfort, air pollution, high energy bills, and high greenhouse gas emissions. It is possible though to address all these problems simultaneously by retrofitting clean and affordable heating systems and reducing heat loss. Installing heat pumps and district heating networks at scale will integrate well with a decarbonised electricity system, and make homes warmer, cleaner and low -carbon. Opportunities exist to further support low-income households, and those who live in the worst performing homes in terms of energy, by scaling grants to income and BER rating. Such opportunities that provide for more equitable access to government funds will be an essential part of our transition.
- Decarbonise industry
Most emissions from the industrial sector come from burning fossil gas and oil to produce heat. More than half of these applications can be switched to electricity, which is becoming increasingly renewable. Significant energy savings can be achieved through efficiency measures, and a switch to electricity and renewable fuels must be accelerated. Support for industry to explore new technological options for decarbonising cement is required, as well as exploring options to cut the need for cement. Sustainable bioenergy resources are constrained and may conflict with other land uses – so will remain an important but niche solution. In future, green hydrogen may be developed for high temperature industrial processes, when there is a surplus of renewable electricity.
The “Big 5” will do the heavy lifting of the energy transition, and we all need to rally around these no-regrets measures.
Beyond these, other options for energy system decarbonation are being discussed, including hydrogen and bioenergy, like biogas and HVO. These may play important roles in squeezing the remaining fossil fuels from our energy system, but there are underexplored risks and trade-offs around cost, energy security and environmental sustainability which need to be fully examined before they are deployed more widely. These niche solutions should only be deployed in ways that lead to net-long term emission reductions, and that they don’t expose consumers to high energy prices. Over egging the potential for these solutions runs the risks of distracting and delaying us from deploying the Big 5 no-regrets measures that we know will work.
The imperative to act
Work must be done urgently to expand, strengthen and accelerate policies, in packages that combine regulation, financial incentives and information campaigns to drive this unprecedented energy transition. Strong energy demand growth must also be addressed, as it is currently outpacing gains from technological change, like trying to run up a down-moving escalator. Examples driving energy demand growth include data centres, the growing size of cars, and dispersed settlement patterns - which increase the need for cars and make the construction of low-carbon infrastructure, like district heating networks and public transport, less viable.
Time is running out
The decisions made today by leaders across politics, society, industry, and government will determine the prosperity and wellbeing of current and future generations. Time, not technology, is the main barrier. No miracles are necessary: the emissions savings required this decade can be achieved with existing solutions that have already been identified in national climate action plans – the question is whether we will act quickly enough.
The legacy of our generation, and of our leaders, depends on how we act right now.
Jim Scheer bio
Jim has over 20 years' experience working in the field of policy analysis and development related to environmental issues. He joined SEAI in 2007 and is currently Head of Department (Data and Insights) responsible for energy statistics, modelling, behavioural economics and finance at SEAI. He holds a Professional Diploma in Advanced Management Performance (Smurfit Business School), MSc. Economic Policy Studies (Trinity College Dublin), BSc. Environmental Science (Flinders University, South Australia). Jim is passionate about getting people connected to the need for climate action now.
Hannah Daly bio
Hannah Daly is a Professor in Sustainable Energy at University College Cork. She leads a team of researchers who analyse future pathways for the energy system compatible with steep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions necessary to address climate change. She communicates widely on the topic of climate action in Ireland, writing a monthly column, At A Time Of Climate Crisis, for the Irish Times, and engages with and advises government, civil society and industry on decarbonisation.
