National Energy Projections
Ireland’s National Energy Projections explores future trends for energy use in Ireland and how we are likely to perform against our national Climate Action Plan and EU climate and energy targets.
Overview
This report presents the main findings of SEAI’s latest National Energy Projections. These are the result of the 2024 national energy and climate modelling cycle. The National Energy Projections examine future energy use in Ireland under different scenarios and account for factors such as economic growth and the anticipated impact of Government energy policies.
SEAI delivers the National Energy Projections annually, in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). SEAI’s National Energy Projections are modelled using the Irish Government’s National Energy Modelling Framework (NEMF) which is developed and maintained by SEAI. The SEAI National Energy Projections are used to plan and assess policies and measures to achieve Ireland’s national and EU energy and climate obligations and targets.
The projections are produced for a time horizon out to 2050. In this report, however, we focus primarily on the period to 2030, as this is the period on which the main EU and national targets and obligations, and so policies and measures, are currently focused.
Key insights
Shortfall projected for all targets
There are significant projected gaps to all legally binding national and EU targets. This includes national carbon budgets with corresponding sectoral emissions ceilings, and EU obligations on renewable energy, energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions.
Risk of falling further behind
There is a risk of delayed achievement across a range of Climate Action Plan targets, including for renewable electricity, biomethane, electric vehicles, district heating, heat pumps and building energy efficiency upgrades. If even some of these risks materialise, it would result in target failure, increased greenhouse gas emissions, less renewable energy, and more energy demand. Actions to address these risks are critically important.
Committing to systemic change
Unprecedented technology change must be combined with strong policies and measures to reduce energy demand in all sectors and to disincentivise behaviours and practices that incur wasteful energy use in all parts of society.
National Energy Projections Report
This report presents the main findings of SEAI’s latest National Energy Projections. These are the result of the 2024 national energy and climate modelling cycle, which culminated in the EPA Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections published in May 2024. The National Energy Projections examine future energy use in Ireland under different scenarios and account for factors such as economic growth and the anticipated impact of Government energy policies.