2023 Energy Balance shows progress on emissions reduction, but not yet enough to meet carbon budgets
Figures demonstrate progress in electricity sector mainly due to interconnection. Significant acceleration of emission reductions needed across all energy uses.
A re-doubling of policies and actions supporting all sectors essential to accelerate move away from fossil fuels.
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) has today published Ireland's full Energy Balance for 2023, which provides the breakdown of energy demand in 2023, and the associated energy-related emissions.
Figures show that energy-related emissions were down by just under 8% in 2023, marking a record rate of reduction. This demonstrates progress towards energy decarbonisation in Ireland. However, the patterns emerging of how we use energy across electricity, heat and transport show significant changes and even higher rates of reduction are needed to successfully bridge the gap between our current performance and achieving our binding climate commitments.
Commenting on the latest figures, Margie McCarthy, Director of Research and Policy Insights, SEAI, noted that:
"Firstly, we welcome a new 'personal best' for Ireland in terms of energy-related emissions reductions. We need to find the right measure of marking this progress, while recognising it's the start of the journey to being able to celebrate success in 2030. At the moment, we are falling far short of where we need to be. Change is notably afoot. Now we need to turn ambition into action to meet our national climate obligations and avoid significant compliance costs against legally binding EU targets."
Reductions in emissions from the electricity sector last year were notable, mainly driven by increased use of imported electricity supply across our interconnectors with the UK, and increased renewable energy generation from wind and solar here in Ireland. Provisional data for 2024 indicates this trend is continuing, suggesting a 17% reduction in electricity related emissions for the first half of the year.
The data shows the total electricity usage increased in 2023 mostly due to new data centre connections. This increase in electricity demand outpaced the connection of new renewable energy sources.
The breakdown of transport emissions in 2023 shows that, even with increased levels of fossil fuel blending with biodiesel and bioethanol, there was a slight increase in transport emissions. Ireland's road transport energy remains over 90% reliant on fossil fuels. Aviation energy reached a record high last year, a concerning trend at a time when we need to be reducing energy demand across all modes of travel.
Provisional data for transport sector emissions in 2024 is indicating a slight reduction. Overall, the data shows Ireland is currently on track to exceed our carbon budget by 2025.
McCarthy explained that:
"With the data we have to hand, it appears that we will marginally exceed the first carbon budget for electricity, leaving an already tight budget slightly reduced for the second period to 2030. The situation with transport will be very challenging as we will likely exceed the first transport sectoral ceiling by a considerable amount perhaps requiring a halving of annual transport emissions through the second period."
Residential use of coal, peat, oil, and natural gas for heating and hot water all dropped in 2023, and the amount of renewable energy used in Irish homes from heat pumps increased by over 30%, albeit from a low base. Provisional 2024 data however suggests a return to growth in gas and oil for home heating, which could see the gains made in 2023 reversed. Industrial and services sector gas use is also up in the first half of 2024.
Looking ahead to what Ireland can do to accelerate emissions reductions, McCarthy highlighted several actions, required of policymakers, industry, and individuals:
"The good news is that we already have the technical solutions to deliver on climate obligations, we just need to deploy them at sufficient scale and pace. We need to focus on offshore wind, grid scale solar PV, and electricity grid development. To tackle heat emissions, we need to eliminate oil and gas boilers, replacing them with electric heat pumps and building district heat networks in towns and cities. We also need to support individuals to reduce their transport demand providing reliable and safe public transport, encouraging more walking, and cycling, and continuing to support the shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs). Most importantly we need to win the hearts and minds of everyone in Ireland to motivate, empower and enable people to act. This can only happen if everyone is on board."
Unprecedented rates of technology deployment will require unprecedented new policy and actions and unprecedented public support for these changes. We need to build on any progress with stronger regulation, incentives, and widespread information campaigns to support all sectors and individuals, to finally show fossil fuels the door.
Learn more about the National Energy Balance