CAO IRL Coupled Atmosphere Ocean Wave Forecasts for Ireland

Project Description

The primary aim of the proposed research is to develop, validate and implement an operational coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave forecasting system for Ireland. The research will focus on the development of a high spatial resolution multi-model coupling between the HARMONIE-AROME atmosphere forecasting model and a wave and ocean forecasting model to predict wave and tidal parameters as well as near-shore and off-shore winds in Ireland. The resulting coupled forecasts will have important implications for renewable energy applications in Ireland by providing an integrated solar, wind and wave energy forecasting system. Such a coupled forecast setup will be a first for Ireland and will inform national policy such as the National Renewable Energy Action Plan and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan. In addition, the research will inform national projects such as the national flood forecasting department at Met Éireann in support of the OPW. A second component of the research will involve simulating the historical climate of Ireland using the coupled system by downscaling ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis global datasets. The historical datasets will be stored on the ICHEC systems and made available to the general public, research community and policy makers. It is envisaged that the datasets will be utilised for a wide range of applications including energy (wind, wave and solar), heating demand and energy, agriculture, hydrology, public health and socio-economic planning. A third component of the research will involve implementing the coupled system in regional climate mode and simulating the future climate of Ireland and Europe for the period 1975-2100.